Probability of reaching the expected standard
Background and use

How to use the probabilities

Teachers can use the outcomes of Year 2 and Year 6 tests to ascertain the probability of each pupil achieving the expected standard on the national tests. Although this can be derived from the total score, entering all the marks will provide much richer information that will help teachers address specific weaknesses and improve outcomes.

The probability is provided for each subject, not for individual papers.

This data only applies where the pupils have sat the complete test in any one subject. Where pupils have not sat all the papers in a test, the probability has no relevance. If a pupil has missed one or more questions, but still attempted the paper, the probability can be applied. 

Pupils may have a greater probability of reaching the expected standard than suggested by this data, if their learning increases at a rate greater than expected. This may be due to targeted and effective intervention or effective revision strategies. Conversely, a pupil may have a lower probability because the rate of learning is not as good for some reason. 

Schools will need to use this information in context with what they know about their individual pupils. 

Pupils tend to perform better on the live test than on other tests taken before the live tests in May. This is a documented trend and there are several possible reasons for it. One relates to a greater level of motivation for the live tests than preceding tests; another suggested reason is around the final revision that occurs prior to the tests. Whatever the cause, the effect has been taken into account in this data. 

Tables and charts for each subject can be accessed once you have logged into MERiT.

How the probabilities were calculated

The probabilities for GPS and mathematics are based on data from pupils who sat the Year 6 Progress Tests (now known as the Testbase National Curriculum Tests) in January and April 2017 matched against their scaled scores from 2017 national tests (SATs). 

The Reading tests were new in 2018 and the probabilities for Reading are based on data from pupils who participated in the trials in June 2017 calibrated to performance in the 2017 Progress Tests (now the Testbase National Curriculum Tests) administered in January and April 2017.